John Walter Russell’s Early Retirement Planning Insights site presents exciting and innovative research on what the historical stock-return data really says about how stocks perform in the long term. If you have money invested in stocks and are hoping to win financial freedom early in life, this is a site not to be missed.
It wouldn’t surprise me too much if my most important contribution to the Financial Freedom Discussion Board Community turned out to be putting on the table the topic that enticed our most valuable Numbers Guy–John Walter Russell (he posts as “JWR1945”)–into active participation in the community. His Early Retirement Planning Insights web site is a godsend for those trying to make sense of the safe withdrawal rate issue. Here’s a link: Early Retirement Planning Insights
I did prelimary work on development of the Data-Based Safe Withdrawal Rate Tool back in late 1995/early 1996, when I was putting together my plan for “retirement” from corporate employment. I ain’t no numbers wiz, and it was not my plan at the time to become a writer of books on early retirement planning. So, once I knew enough about what the historical stock-return data says about how stocks are likely to perform in the future, I dropped the safe withdrawal rate project for a time and went on to researching other questions I needed to resolve in doing my own early retirement planning.
In the time between then and May 13, 2002, when I put forward The Post Heard Around the World, I continued to make use of the Data-Based Safe Withdrawal Rate Tool and learned new things about it when I came across articles discussing the historical stock-return data and checked them for accuracy. But I never was able to achieve much precision in my findings because I lacked the statistical abilities needed to do so.
A Call for Help from a Numbers Guy
For a variety of reasons, I decided in early 2002 that the time had come to put the question of the analytic validity of the REHP study (the safe withdrawal rate study published by John Greaney at the RetireEarlyHomePage.com site) on the table. One of the things I was looking for was help from some of the Numbers Guys in our community in adding the statistical precision to my safe withdrawal rate findings that they had been lacking until that time. Our community had employed safe withdrawal rate analysis in our early retirement planning for some time, and I expected that there would be Numbers Guys in the community who could greatly enhance the Data-Based Safe Withdrawal Rate Tool.
John had not participated much in our community prior to that time. I believe that he had put forward two or three posts. But he became interested in the safe withdrawal rate topic from the very first days of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate. On Day Four, he put forward a well-received post entitled “Hocus Is Really Onto Something!” and on Day Six he followed that one up with one entitled “Hocus Started It All (and I’m Having a Ball!)” That was, as Bogey might have put it, “the start of a beautiful relationship.” I was looking for a Numbers Guy willing to do some service for our community, and, boy, did I ever find one!
It is not possible to overestimate the contribution that John has made in the three years since. For those three years he has been working a full 40-hour work week doing research to benefit aspiring early retirees trying to learn what the historical data really says about safe withdrawal rates. He has put forward thousands of posts on this topic and was by far the most important contributor to the board that I believe will someday be recognized as the most influential in the history of our movement–the Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group board. His work has generated countless early retirement planning insights of great power, for the most part stuff that appears nowhere else in the personal finance literature. He has taken on lots of personal abuse for the work he has done, having been smeared every which way to Kingdom Come for reporting accurately what the data says. And he has never been paid a dime for the fine work he has done for us!
Why Discussion Boards Matter
It’s a truly amazing story. When I tell people in the real world about the ugly posting tactics we have witnessed during The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate, the reaction that I usually get is a rolling of the eyes. Many people have little respect for discussion boards as a communications medium. They ask me “Why do you put up with that junk, why do you even waste your time?” My response is always to point to the example of John Walter Russell. You don’t think that this new internet disucussion-board communications medium has the potential to change the world of personal finance in days to come? Take a look at the posting record of this one individual and try to make the case with a straight face.
If the tactics used by REHP study and FIREcalc (the retirement calculator presented at Early-Retirement.org) supporters represents the worst that the internet has to offer, the contributions of this guy represent the best. In my hopeless optimism about our movement, I convince myself that the REHP study supporters represent our past and that JWR1945 represents our future.
The best way to tap into Russell’s work product today is to pay a visit to the web site linked above, Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com. John was forced to put up the web site just so that people would continue to have access to his research when REHP study supporters demanded that the 3,600 posts of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group board be deleted from the NoFeeBoards.com site. The site owner “ES” was reluctant to take down his most popular board, and in fact vowed not to on a number of occasions, but some of the REHP study supporters are a bit over the top in their choice of tactics for “winning” internet debates, and they–well, let’s just say they made him him an offer he couldn’t refuse. The bottom line is that the Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group board was taken down and John’s Early Retirtement Planning Insights web site went up.
Confirmation of Findings Needed
I try to persuade myself that it’s for the best. I don’t really think so because, as good as John’s research is, I need to see a lot more feedback on it from the entire commununity before I will feel comfortable in saying that it all holds up. I know that John has always been responsive to questioning of his methodology (in stark contrast to Greaney), so I possees a reasonable amount of confidence that he “got it right.” But the reality is that John is reporting what the historical data says not just on safe withdrawal rates, but on scores of related questions (just about all investing questions have some connection with safe withdrawal rate analysis when the safe withdrawal rate analysis is done in an analytically valid way). So John’s research has put a lot of important findings on the table, scores and scores more than any of the conventional methodology safe withdrawal rate studies. It is far too early in our Learning Together project to be making definitive pronouncements as to whether many partitcular findings of his will stand the test of time or not, in my view. We need a lot more input from a lot of smart and serious people before we will be in a position to confirm the findings presented at the Early Retirement Planning Insights site.
John can’t be blamed for that, of course. It’s not his job to confirm his own research findings. He has done eveything that one human being could possibly do to advance our project of learning what it takes to win financial freedom early in life, He is a Hero of the First Order of our small (but quickly growing!) movement. He is honest. He is smart. He stands up for fellow community members when they are under attack. He is hard-working. He is unfailingly generous with his time and polite and kind with his comments. Beat that combination!
I read the other day that there are about 60 million web sites. Not too many of them are going to change the world. The Early Retirement Planning Insights site is going to change the world. That’s my take. If you possess a sincere interest in learning what it takes to win financial freedom early in life, you need to get on over there and check it out. No, that’s not enough. You need to study the earth-shaking material that John has put forward there.
There’s not that much that you are going to read this week that is going to make a big difference in how your future turns out. The stuff you see at Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com is likely to do just that. So please take the time to work through as much of that material as you possibly can and to go over the hard bits enough times until you possess at least a moderate understanding of the true message of the historical stock-return data.
I ain’t no Numbers Guy. John is a serious Numbers Guy. That means that a lot of his stuff sails about ten miles above my head. Them’s the breaks. If you are like me, and generally prefer words to numbers, my advice is to do what I do and just struggle with this stuff to the extent you can without giving yourself a headache and be satisfied that doing that is a whole lot better than nothing.
There are a lot of web sites that I have visited where I look back and say “Why the heck did I waste so much time reading that junk?” There is too much stuff out there that amuses for a time but in the long run offers not much substance. You don’t read John’s site to be amused. There are indeed some hard bits included in the mix (although a good bit of John’s material is not all that difficult to take in). The bottom line is that it even the hard stuff is hard stuff that makes a difference, hard stuff worth taking the time to work through.
I discover something new each time I pay a visit, whether I am looking at recently posted material or going over again stuff that I made an initial stab at on an earlier visit with the thought that I needed to come back again later and dig a little deeper. If you care about winning financial freedom early in life, the Early Retirement Planning Insights site is the most important site on Planet Internet.