The Financial Freedom Discussion-Board Community discovered an exciting new way to invest during The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate–Valuation-Informed Indexing. This approach allows you to attain financial freedom years sooner. It takes advantage of the powerful insights developed in the 1980s and 1990s from study of the historical stock-return data. But it greatly expands on those insights by recognizing that earlier studies failed to properly take into account the effect that changing valuations have on the long-term returns of buy-and-hold investors.
“The Truth Has a Way of Emerging Eventually” – The “experts” will be telling you someday in the future what the Retire Early Community began talking about over six years ago.
“Securities Markets Appear to Be At Least Partially Predictable After All” – Timing beats rebalancing. But you knew that, didn’t you?
A New Approach to “Staying the Course” – Bogle dropped the ball. Let’s pick it up!
Buffett Treats Us Like Babies – I believe that we can learn to invest realistically if told the straight story.
Year Seven – I don’t care what people say, The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate is here to stay!
Bogle Needs to Read Bogle – He loves us Normals, he loves us not. He loves us Normals, he loves us not.
All Good News Is Bad News – The longer we hold prices up, the worse it feels to watch them come back down.
The Beer Don’t Taste the Way It Ought to Taste Somehow – Fear and greed — and shame.
Obtaining “Permission” to Ignore Valuations – Why do people treat Indexing and Passive Investing as if there were some necessary connection between these two concepts?
“I Actually Think I Am Somewhat Convinced” – Alex Sutherland’s reply to my response e-mail.
“Choosing Passive Investing Is Like Choosing to Take on Hundreds of Thousands in Student Debt” – Losses aren’t such a great thing for young investors either.
“You Have Not Addressed the Actual Problems Investors Face” – A fellow named Alex Sutherland asks some intelligent questions.
Rational Investing vs. Passive Investing – Irrational investing is a habit hard to break.
Indexing Without the Emotional Baggage – Take out the Passive Investing ugliness and it makes sense.
The Broken Homes that Jack Caused – If Taylor Larimore didn’t earn the money he used to pay for his retirement home, who did?
Passive Investing — The Theory and the Practice – What happens in the real world matters. I’m sure of it!
Never Go to a Nerd for Investing Advice – Reflecting on Suze Orman’s eyes.
Joke – The Efficient Market Theory — A dumb joke, a cruel joke, a very unfunny joke. But a joke all the same.
“It Is the Rigidity of Passive Investing that Causes All the Sickness that Surrounds It” – New Investor insists that I develop a strict rules-based approach to long-term timing. I explain that a loving parent just isn’t willing to go there.
Technical Analysis for Non-Dummies – I don’t believe in those who don’t believe in technical analysis.
Hocomania Never Sleeps – The latest from the King of the No Fries.
Can Passive Investing Beat Valuation-Informed Indexing? – A new community member named “Curious” asks a thought-provoking question.
Financial WebRing Forum Entertains (Somewhat) Honest Discussion of Valuation-Informed Indexing – The walls are (slowly) breaking down.
Why I Quote Song Lyrics in My Posts… – …and why it drives the Lindauerheads quite bananas.
It’s Personal – We don’t only need to change our ideas in the aftermath of a huge bull. We need to change our leaders too.
Sweet, Polite and Irritating – That’s me!
The Realistic Investor Packs a Bag and Catches a Bus – In which I compare advocates of Passive Investing to abusive spouses.
Emotion Denied, Emotion Empowered – EMD Stew.
Passive Investing Is Dangerous – Passive Investing sounds too good to be true. I wonder why.
Investing School – You have to study the Efficient Market Theory for 20 years to become truly expert in believing things that cannot possibly be so.
Triumph of the Marketers – Passive Investing doesn’t make sense. Lots of marketing pitches don’t.
Rob the Irrational – Those who refer to investors who acknowledge their humanity as irrational intend it as an insult. But is it really?
Valuations Do Not Matter, and Then They Do, and Then They Do Not – The market starts out being a random walk and gradually over time becomes increasingly efficient.
Rounding Up – Does anybody really know what time it is? Does anybody really care?
The Three-Inch Ruler – The game is rigged.
Stories, Songs and Parables – Frank Sinatra on buy-and-hold.
Following the Smart Makes Us All Dumb – Shiller on Information Cascades.
10 Rarely Voiced Realities of Investing Today – Buy-and-hold is in trouble, and that means that lots of us are in trouble.
A New Set of Building Blocks – Even if you have never heard the phrase “Efficient Market Theory,” it has affected how you invest.
A Strange Babyland – Pressing the food-pellet bar.
Newspaper Prices – I’ve discovered a wee little problem in the way that the newspapers report to us what our stock portfolios are worth.
Hate Story – Hate is evidence of pain. When investing experts see that the people trying to implement their theories in the real world are feeling a great deal of pain, they should revise the theories.
Bogle Laughed – Bogle’s got a right to laugh at some people. And some people have a right to laugh at Bogle. We all should be careful about what we laugh at.
Poof! – A public service announcement.
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Investing Experts ISO Common Sense – We deserve better. A lot better.
The Failure of Buy-and-Hold – You shouldn’t invest one penny in stocks until you understand where stock returns come from.
Portfolio Allocation by Intimidation – Death threats, and board bannings, and lawsuits, oh my!
The Future of Behavioral Finance – Let’s start telling the truth about stock investing. Yes, it’s a crazy idea. But, hey! — it just might work!
Yes, Virginia, There Is a Free Lunch for Smart Investors – God will not be pleased if you show up on Judgment Day with the package marked “Investing Intelligence” having been returned unopened.
The How-To of Investing the Valuation-Informed Indexing Way – Nine practical steps leading to a more realistic approach to indexing.
If the Random Walk Is Real, the Efficient Market Isn’t – Where Burton Malkiel and I agree and disagree.
Who’s Afraid of the Efficient Market Hypothesis? – I take issue with Shiller’s claim that we need to take the efficient market hypothesis “seriously.”
The Efficient Market Concept Is a Big Bunch of Hooey – I know that the Efficient Market Theory has been selected as the official stock investing theory of the 2008 Olympics. Still, I say that this Easter Bunny of an investing theory won’t hop.
Stock Panic Up Close and Personal – Behavioral finance implications of comments set forth in the “Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations!” article.
You Can and Must Beat the Market – It sounds reasonable not to aim to beat the market, but it is a big mistake.
The Case Against Valuation-Informed Indexing – Here are 20 arguments you need to think over before going down the path recommended at this site.
Why Stocks Crashed – The Great Karmac tells why it happened before it happens!
All You Need to Know About Stock Price Changes – Why it bugs me that I rank so high on Google for the term “P/E10.”
About Our Unique Asset Allocation Calculator – Answers to 10 basic questions about the Scenario Surfer.
Why Is Scott Burns Afraid of Me? – I’ve been know to engage in a bit of excited barking from time to time. But I hardly ever bite.
“Time” Is Not a Four-Letter Word – Traps are only set by me.
NYT Discovers P/E10 – The New York Times “gets it” — for a day.
Why Investing Books Are Boring – They talk down to the reader.
Cash Is King — I’ll Prove It With Numbers – Evidence even a confirmed non-Numbers Guy cannot ignore.
Eight Investing Questions You Need Answered Before Putting Money Down – Don’t take every investing expert to be your friend.
Middle-Class Investors Are At a Disadvantage – Experts give different advice to paying clients than they do to the middle-class investors who rely on free sources of investing guidance.
Investing Research and the Tricky Tricks Used to Trick You – Investing research parades as science, but much of it is better described as science fiction.
The 10 Most Common Objections to Following a Realistic Investing Strategy – Realistic investing is not complicated. That doesn’t mean it’s easy.
Jeremy Siegel Is a Dangerous Individual – His citing of the historical stock-return data makes his arguments appear scientific.
The Fire Alarm Has Not Been Tripped – I’m working on it! I’m working on it!
The Criminal Underneath My Own Hat – Getting in Touch with Your Inner Goon.
You’re Smarter Than the Experts – Karthik Narayanaswamy is the one who should be writing for The Wall Street Journal.
Taylor Larimore and the Monster Mistake That Ate Middle-Class Wealth – Taylor Larimore gives the wrong answer to the question “What is the investing long-term?” At least he addresses the question!
Jack Bogle Started Out as a Little Boy – Honey, We Forgot the People!
Bet Big on Brazil! (Or Don’t.) – Shiller’s thoughts on where to put your money until U.S. stock prices make the return trip from la-la land.
Buffett Disappoints – The smartest investor in history does not endorse my investing approach. Has the world gone truly mad?
What’s Faith Got to Do, Got to Do With It? – Long-term investors need to develop an ability to believe in the unseen.
How Low Will Stock Prices Go? – This just in — there’s good reason to believe that stock prices will only fall 40 percent!
Paul McCartney Sounds Off on Our Investing Troubles – Why can’t we do it with a valid SWR methodology?
Year Six – Five Topics up for discussion in the next chapter of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate.
Don’t Worry About Valuations – Siegel strikes again.
Community Comments on Using Stock Data to Diminish Retirement Risks – What the change from the Old School to the New School means for those who make use of safe withdrawal rates to plan real-world retirements.
Say It Loud — “I’m a Realistic Investor and I’m Proud!” – It’s the ones working a con who should be hanging their heads.
“An Ocean of Pain” – And so little upside!
The Experts Speak on the Risks of Holding Overvalued Stocks in Retirement – Ssssh! Please be sure not to tell the authors of any of the Old School SWR studies what you read here. It greatly upsets them.
Using the Risk Evaluator to Develop Retirement Planning Strategies – A host of insights on retirement planning strategies open to us when we quantify the effect of valuation changes.
About Our Unique Retirement Planning Calculator – Ten basic questions and answers.
The Retirement Risk Evaluator Is Here! – The first “New School” safe-withdrawal-rate calculator.
Woody Allan’s Take on the Efficient Market Theory – You don’t have to stop believing in the Efficient Market Theory just because you know it’s not true.
A Cheat Sheet for Ed Easterling’s Unexpected Returns – Ed Easterling’s book Unexpected Returns points out some big flaws in the conventional investing wisdom.
Our Personal Finance Vietnam – What do the Vietnam War and the stock-market bubble have in common? Groupthink.
How Did Common-Sense Investing Become Controversial? – How millions who see the appeal of common-sense investing became “stock drunk.”
The Experts Speak on the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns – Bernstein, Bogle and Arnott, oh my!
The 24 Most Common and Most Costly Investing Mistakes – Please do not try these at home.
Benefits of Using the Historical Return Data for Predicting Stock Returns – Predicting stock returns is key to becoming a true buy-and-hold investor because it helps you prepare yourself for what is to come.
What’s Wrong (and Right) with Using Historical Stock Data to Predict Returns – The historical stock data permits us to predict long-term stock returns with reasonable accuracy, but we need to proceed with caution.
The Case for Selling in a Stock Market Downturn – In a long stock market downturn, those who panic first panic least.
About Our Unique Investment Return Calculator – Answers to ten basic questions.
Bogle’s Big Mistake – A new section of the site deals with the “Heroes and Villains” of today’s money world.
A Behavioral Finance Approach to Picking Stocks – Eight ways in which an understanding of behavioral finance might help in picking stocks.
Stock Picking for Indexers – Indexing and stock picking go well together.
Investing Experts Are Politicians – They employ gobbledygook and seek to avoid accountability.
The Investing Establishment – Why is it that Bill Bernstein and Jonathan Clements are struggling today to understand something that became obvious to me over 10 years ago?
Ball of Confusion – William Bernstein tries to hide from us (and from himself too?) what he knows about safe withdrawal rates.
Jonathan Should Take a Tip from Dustin – Jonathan Clements has not explored the Safe Withdrawal Rate story because the implications frighten him.
Hocus Goes Electric – My thoughts on the best comments put to a thread on P/E10 and Valuation-Informed Indexing.
Uptight (Everything’s Not Allright!) – Today’s investing advisors have a credentials problem — they have too many of them!
The Price of Peanut Butter – God speaks through the Goons.
We Can’t Say What Stocks Will Do in the Short-Term — Or Can We? – John Walter Russell has done it again.
Bogle Meets Rocky – Why exactly is it that you can’t get to heaven on the Frankford El?
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